2021 Season Review
After having time to consider the season I look back and reflect on a unique year for Eurovision seeing what I and the market overall got right and wrong.
The Good Calls
Italy
Well they won just as had been called since March so it has to go down as a spot on prediction and the best one. Backed immediately following the San Remo win and heavily through to rehearsals with my final prediction -Italy (4th/1st) 500 (200/300)- As close as you're likely ever going to get this sort of thing.
Bulgaria
I initially went along with the idea Victoria could be a challenger even if I wasn't thrilled with their selection but it was one I quickly jumped ship on. Was held at a small red/ close to break even pre rehearsals- even though I was pretty certain the eventual relegation to non runner was coming it was worth keeping close enough not to lose sleep over.
Ukraine
Not something that won me much money but was swerved in the run up to the final and my final prediction of 5th in the final (2nd in the televote- just 2 points off) was one of the more accurate. Sometimes you need to cover potential outcomes, other times you need to hold firm and ignore the nonsense prices.
Cyprus
Another one where the hype train was dodged and I even got involved in laying for top 10. Finished even further off the pace than I expected after all. Backing this and Ukraine in particular at their shortest prices could have wasted up to 20% of one’s book and failed to return even a stingy e/w.
Malta
Televote concerns were raised from the off and my first review turned out to be pretty spot on. Overall, it’s one I kept cautiously onside of throughout the season until loosing more faith in rehearsals. In the end I was a little surprised it fell so short.
Iceland
Crucially avoided pre song (12s-7s) but was fairly quick to re-assess this upwards from my initial review with the Eurojury results the main cause. Bagged at it's best prices, including some e/w whilst top Nordic a healthy bet and semi 2 winner painfully close.
UK
Initial thoughts were the UK would be clear of the bottom but by rehearsals I could see nothing else but last which turned into a sizeable investment. The double zero was one of the most embarrassing moments for any country ever.
Other countries called fairly accurately:
Germany, Spain, Belgium, Georgia, Latvia, Australia, Ireland, Slovenia, North Macedonia, Poland, Norway, Greece
The Middling Calls
Sweden
Never anticipated the complete collapse and missing the top 10 earlier in the season but was never a contender or non qualifier for me either.
Switzerland
Was the only country red that provided me any worries on finals night. Always respectful of the threat but did see it finishing lower than it did eventually. Didn't make any money of it, and lost indirectly.
Finland
This is more a case of me playing the market well rather than calling it correctly, with their final position higher than expected. Nabbed some at the peak post rehearsal price and selling off during the final. Iceland was also correctly taken in top Nordic.
Portugal
Backed to qualify and with small amounts on the top 10 early. Also covered well into triple figures. A break even result overall with them slipping out of the top 10.
Other Middling Calls: Serbia, Albania, Austria, Moldova, Azerbaijan, Russia, Czech Republic, Netherlands
And The Bad Ones…
France
I eventually came around to the danger of France but we're talking rehearsals onwards really when it started to make my top 4. The first review was by far the most inaccurate of the year and the only defence I can muster is that it was only the third song selected. A France win could never have been a great result for me once this settled in the 5s but covering to an acceptable level was the right play here given the final results.
San Marino
I imagined Flo Rida to have a much bigger effect on both the market and on scoring and honestly saw the song as very strong regardless. Not much was lost on this overall and I stayed well clear of the shorter priced markets such as to-qualify and top 10.
Romania
One I talked myself into having as a dark horse with the initial review actually being bang on. They went for the right concept but the execution was poor. Still saw it getting through despite its struggles but nothing staked there at least.
Lithuania
A tighter call between middling or bad with a fairly accurate final position eventually landed on but at the end of the day they finished lower than I thought at most times of the year and missed that semi top 3.
Also called poorly were: Israel, Croatia, Estonia
Betting Results
Without going into too much detail, 2021 has proved to be my second most successful year yet just behind 2017. It’s always going to be a strong year when you land the winner from early and a bit of trading elsewhere solidified that.
A foundation to this year in particular was pre song with the huge amount of returning artists. Both Malta and Switzerland were backed at this stage whilst the short prices on Russia, Iceland and Romania in particular weren't taken. Taking some high odds on Armenia was the only really wrong call at the time with the expectation they'd stay in. The risk is always higher the earlier you get involved but consider betting like a game of poker: if you have an edge you want to be sat at the table for as long as possible.
Overall, one thing I'm happy with this year is finding those 'peak prices'. Cyprus 40+, Finland 100+, Portugal 200+, Iceland 25+ to take a few with only Ukraine really missed (and France too I guess).
I was less busy in the qualification markets than usual mainly just opposing longer shots (Australia, Latvia, Ireland in particular) than trying to get the last 2 from 5 for example. More the dynamics of the year than anything but by the end of rehearsals I had no real interest or confidence in any country priced between 1.4-2.7 say.
National Final season was also my best yet with a profit made everywhere.
Fyr and Flamme and Maneskin were both big wins and whilst Norway’s MGP contributed by far the least to my profits KEiiNO and TIX were dutched to a decent level. Melodifestivalen was the only outright market of the 4 I was involved with to register a loss but heats 1, 2 and 3 (4 and AC losses) all went well as did every other bet in the final except the outright.
The Overall Market
So what of the betting market itself? Particularly on finals night with Finland trading around 13 I feel some people must have got carried away with some of the stats and forgot there is a jury vote too. The same is true for Ukraine who also reached as low as 8s at times. Both were never in contention. I'd say there's too much focus on the jury side pre rehearsals (with the eventual top 5/6 correlating strongly to the odds from April).
The televote however has proven yet again that “Malta's answer to Lizzo” or “Cyprus’ MTV Gaga tribute” to take two are not going to wash. Conventional can still do well but it needs to be exceptional, and even then if the staging doesn't impress and/or you get a first half draw you'll be beaten by a a Europop Joik or Techno-Folk.
I'd expect the more ‘unusual’ packages to be higher in the early odds next year.
The biggest failures in the odds have to be Cyprus' jump following their second rehearsal - odd timing anyway-and Bulgaria's following their first. The traditional ‘rehearsals overreaction’ tag fits the bill for both as well as a little confirmation bias on Bulgaria.
The initial market reaction to Malta's 6th place running order was extreme (Briefly going 10+) but sometimes the panic is correct. It was interesting to speculate why it had been put there but ultimately irrelevant- It wasn't winning from that moment on. I was still expecting a higher score on both sides however.