Finland 2025: Erika Vikman with ‘Ich Komme’
The 69th edition of Eurovision welcomes a fitting act with Erika Vikman dominating the competition at UMK to head off to Basel.
Finland are one of the current favourites for the win and have been going down in the odds, edging to around 11s currently. That necessitates a thorough look at this so the following review won't be a quickie.
The fandom love for this is big and it ticks many of their boxes: previously "wronged" NF competitor, sassy queen, upbeat entry, from a popular country and of course with one of the raunchier performances to grace the stage. That does not explain the entirety of the appeal or success of this however and there is enough to suggest more mainstream support too.
Comparing Erika's result at UMK to Kaarijaa's we see she picked up 41% of the votes in a six song field vs his 52% out of seven, though I'd probably say this was a stronger edition overall and the voting numbers were up substantially, along with viewing figures. Erika's jury score of 68 (nearly nice) was also slightly down on Kaarijaa's. Overall, I think the numbers here hold up very well but don’t reach the crazy heights of a Cha Cha Cha or Rim Tim Tagi Dim.
Spain's Esa Diva and Armenia's potential DaQueenation (please kill me) have been grouped with this in a broad "slayage" category but this holds a Usp here. It's self aware and has character in a way those two do not. Malta is also here however who we will address in a couple of days and the interplay between those two might be more relevant in terms of a vote clash.
The more pressing issue is the juries who even the most ardent supporters of this must admit will pose a problem. Will they keep their end up or is this destined to flop from the start? There is a certain star quality to Erika's solo performance on stage which lends this some support. This doesn't much relation to Maneskin or Baby Lasagna for example but both of those were acts from not traditionally awarded genres who managed to get winning-capable jury scores. I don't think Erika is doomed in that sense but there is a fine margin and it's essential her vocal is tightened up and the staging fine tuned.
The composition is unconventional in it's all out climatic ending but there is a messiness and simplicity too. There is a bit of something here and with improvements, Erika might get to the minimum 150~ jury points needed to contend, and then hope and pray to reach 300+ on the televote, and for that to be enough. It is a very tight margin of error. The last few years have given us unsurmountable jury leads and whilst there's no guarantee that continues, it does make everyone a little cautious. Inherently, it is also easier for a "jury song" to also score well on the televote than vise versa too.
It's always worth pointing out that we've seen this eurovision ready given UMK's probably Europe leading production values whereas other entries have more room for improvement - and to catch this up. It's unlikely to stand out as much at the end of March as it does now, let alone in May.
Overall, gun to head my guess is 200~ televote points and 120~ jury. It's an entry many are excited about, and that could easily be dismissed too as fanwank but it's also one I think falls in the middle of those extremes most of the time. 1.02 to qualify and a potential semi winner and show closer.
Personal Rating: 13/20
Staging Potential: 17/20
Televote Potential: 18/20
Jury Potential: 14/20
Track Record: 15/20
Total Rating: 78/100
Early Prediction: Semi 2 1st-4th, 5th-9th in the final.