Ukraine 2025: Ziferblat with ‘Bird of Prey’

Annual heavyweights Ukraine have selected their entry for Basel, with Ziferblat winning a very long edition of Vidbir last Saturday.

This was not a classic vidbir and this was also not the best choice there. The guys give a good performance of this but it’s a song that is hard to draw any inspiration from, unlike the Ukrainian entry last year. This is middle of the road fare and I’d say a likely NQ in the hands of most countries.

We have three years of Ukraine at war to judge which has suggested 2 things: casuals or even the huge diaspora do need something of substance to buy into and that jurors are marking much more on merrit. Any solidarity vote or whatever you want to call it is also naturally degrading over time (it will be the same for Israel too likely). That is of course unless we get any developments that could give 'Bird of Prey' a renewed meaning but that feels unlikely and the EBU showed a determination to stop Ukraine last year, with an actually credible song.

Ukraine are typically masters at the staging game but there doesn't seem to be a lot to do with this.

Everything considered, 150 pts seems the max televote this could receive in the final, and that relies on the diaspora support coming through. However, like it's the first time fans and betting folk are ruling this out post conflict, Ukrainians too may feel that way and not turn out for this. I'm not sure how high the motivation will be and I actually feel a 100 televote score may be more accurate. Dividing that by 2 actually makes me tempted to check the semi split:

Here we have a 99.9% 12 pts from Poland and Portugal have also been a big supporter over the past years. Cyprus, Italy and Spain have been consistent contributers too. Estonia as the only Baltic and Azerbaijan as the only Caucasus are the worst possible outcomes from those pots however. Assuming medium diaspora interest, all those mentioned + the rest of the world vote is circa 55pts probably with a few here and there in each other country Ukraine should be looking at 70pts+ here almost in the bank and all I have done is found the obvious but sometimes it's good to double check. Ukraine should qualify to the final 95% of the time I'd say. Once there this probably settles mid table overall. There's some musicianship with the whole band on stage aspect and that occasionally goes down well with the juries. It’s a piece of music overall that leaves very little impression however and is more filler than something they will actively push. Perhaps 70~ points from them. Ukraine can't be dismissed from the top 10 but I'm actually leaning out for now.

Personal Rating: 8/20

Televote Potential: 14/20

Jury Potential: 12/20

Staging Potential: 14/20

Track Record: 15/20

Total Rating: 63/100

Early Prediction: Semi 1 5th-8th, 10th-15th in the final.