Finland 2023: Kaarijaa with ‘Cha Cha Cha’
The shortest priced favourite of the national final season has seen the job through at UMK and now Kaarijaa will set his sights on Liverpool:
My heart has softened to this since it first popped up but it's still not something I particularly rate personally. There's a strong feel good ending to this and the genre switcheroo is done well, he does kind of win you over as this progresses although that applies to the video much more. Live tonight that sense of joy and transition was lost- more differentiation between the halves of this song are needed.
Crucially for Kaarijaa on the televote, there's no negative voting of course and those who like it more than me, well they really like it, which is what you want really.
The signs are pretty clear this could go down a treat in Liverpool with the televote but the extent is important. The most successful song in the same ballpark is 'Toy' and was able to achieve 317 albeit in a 43 song edition. Finland's 2006 victory with Lordi brought in 290 with the same number of entrants (- the international vote) as this year's. 'Cha Cha Cha' would need to at least match both of these in order to be a contender. For arguments sake, let's say it falls between the two at 7.8 televote points per country. That would give a total of 289 points from the public rounded up. Even the heaviest scoring novelty act ever (Russia 2012) in this year's points would receive about 300.
Based upon 20 years of data, it's reasonable to assume that is the absolute limit Kaarija can hope for, to be in the top 1 percentile of any entry on the the jokey spectrum. Even in that absolute dream scenario we're still realistically looking at 170~ jury points to have a probable shot; the chances of which are slim. This is too divisive before even discussing the lack of any vocal capacity, dated sound and less of a surface level message which helped Netta in 2018. There's also competition on the scandic front in the shape of Loreen and arguably Norway.
The tl:dr of all this pseudo science- 'Cha Cha Cha' would need to be the most successful 'novelty' act ever at Eurovision with the public -or damn close to that- before even contemplating how it goes down with the juries. If 'Cha Cha Cha' is "only" liked as much as 'Hey Mama', '10 Years', 'Yodel It', 'Shum', 'Hatrid Mun Sigra', 'Trenuletul' and 'In Copore Sano' to take an eclectic mix of recent successful entries its hopes of victory are dead in the water. Should any country pass the 500 point mark, which is very do-able despite the reduced lineup, it's likewise over for Finland.
It's why I have a hard time with this one; there's pretty much one unlikely path to victory of a 1st/5th split and nothing else passing the 500pt barrier. Possible - but incredibly hard to bank on. Much more likely is Finland picking up a perfectly generous 200 TV points before we get to the split screen finale.
I should also add in that Ukraine's path to victory is almost identical making songs with more 50/50 appeal or jury favourites better prospects.
This may not leave contention until jury voting begins in the final and is a fair each way option, but my view is this is capped and mathematically doesn't have the legs to reach the very top.
Personal Rating: 6/10
Competitve Rating: 8/10
Early Prediction: Semi Final 1st- 4th, Final 3rd-7th