Italy 2025: Lucio Corsi with 'Volevo Essere Un Duro'
Sanremo winner Olly has turned down the option to represent Italy meaning Lucio Corsi is heading to Basel - who would have thought that a month ago!
As we know, Italy's national selection isn’t primarily a national selection and it’s been due to a bit of luck and an overall ridiculously high standard and depth vs any other countries options the past decade that has maintained their strong form.
There have always been cracks in that (Mango>Annalissa for one) but it has really broke down this year in my view with perhaps 10 better options than Olly. 1 of those (but not the most obvious) is Lucio Corsi whose presence adds a bit more of an unknown factor into the mix.
What we know is that the Italian juries at Sanremo were really into this and there is more obvious jury potential at Eurovision too, with an artistic, musicianship oriented, refined performance of a standard Italian ballad. There is dare I say it a touch of the Italy 2011 to this which of course won the jury in Dusseldorf that year. That’s not quite the endorsement it sounds as that was a very week year, with more points up for grab and an unquantifiable “welcome back Italy” boost so 251 isn’t that extreme but there is a strong precedent that something like this entry could sneak it’s way to 200 jury points - a chance Olly did not have.
I still don’t believe this song is anything special however and it’s important not to overate this just because of the Italy tag and their typical success. I think part of the appeal domestically were the lyrics which could get lost in the transition now and a reason fans aren’t buying into this as much as Italians, as well as the usual taste differences.
On this being Italian, there is certainly some positive bias that will play out in Lucio's favour this wouldn't have if it was from Azerbaijan or Lithuania let’s say and juggling that balance will be important in estimations - to neither underestimate or overestimate what Italy can manage to sell.
The televote is where this will struggle more with Lucio mainly getting to second by winning over Italians during the week and having a press rankings buildup to help frame that. He won't have that luxury at Eurovision and I don't know where the first impression lies. Mime makeup or not, Lucio also isn't in the Italian hearthob category either, this is just lazer focused singersongwriter fare and whilst there’s an audience for that, without being exceptional, this may struggle to go beyond that base.
I’m reminded in a way of some Portugal's entries and recent outcomes, in particular Love Is On My Side from 2021 which received 126 points from the juries and just 27 on the televote. This probably has a bit more identity to it and should do better but there is some precedent there too.
Overall, we are really waiting to see what pans out on the jury side in terms of potential stripped back rival entries from the likes of France, Czechia, Portugal, Netherlands, Germany and potentially Switzerland or The UK. Those might determine just how strong the jury push is for this. It’s possible this ends up in the jury top 3 if those dissapoint or there are some wrong choices made which may give Italy a crack at reaching 4th place or something at the absolute peak.
As of now, I’ll go for around 170 jury points and 75 on the televote. I can see why this has shortened Italy in the markets vs Olly even if its even less of a fan pick. There is a bit more of an unkown factor and volatility on this but for now I’m thinking Italy finish lower top 10.
Personal Rating: 12/20
Staging Potential: 12/20
Televote Potential: 12/20
Jury Potential: 18/20
Track Record: 19/20
Total Rating: 73/100
Early Prediction: 7th-12th