Sweden 2025: KAJ with 'Bara Bada Bastu'
In one of the more competitive Melfest of recent year's, it was the underdogs KAJ who managed to upset the odds and rival contestants feelings with Bara Bada Bastu.
After months of considering Måns Zelmerlow as a big threat at Eurovision, and then a couple of weeks with his 'Revolution' similarly highly rated, or maybe more respected, there has been a real shift in the last few days and last night in particular, that not only would KAJ be a more popular entry - they would even be the more competetive one with a higher overall ceiling.
Winning melodifestivalen itself is evidence of that. That is slick, sterile pop central and yet this random trio of Sauna enthusiasts were able to win with a very strong televote and very much hanging in there in the jury. Afterall, they were just two points behind an act widely expected to be scoring 250+ in Basel, in an identical format. That was a tough test passed with flying colours.
We have the unusual situation - not since 2011 - that Sweden are expected to score higher on the televote, and not just 'high', but dominantly so. The number of people calling this a 300+ (I am one) is something not often seen with Ukraine '22 and Kaarijaa the only recent examples. Of course, both went on to easily pass that. The strong consensus and performance at Melodifestivalen, and recent televote trends suggests this will too. The arguments ready against Måns such as Swede fatigue just get thrown straight in the bin. After all, what better to counter fatigue than a nice Sauna?
I am rarely this positive but this is ultimate, infectious, televote joy and feels the actual successor to Kaarijaa and Joost, with the that similar hook. It's telling that Estonia's price has practically doubled on the selection of this.
Are we all getting carried away because Sweden have finally sent something different? Maybe. Maybe in the coming weeks we cool on this and begin to think more 'logically and rationally'. And then we will watch it in May and BARA BADA BASTU. I guess for actual red flags there is the fact this needed the momentum in Sweden and lost its semi but I don't see a great amount of relevance there - it's not a big knock to lose to Måns Zelmerlow on debut.
Juries are still the weaker element but as seen last night there is a lot of respect for this. Melfest juries may be a bit more fan-like but this receiving 4 sets of 12 there was attention grabbing. Of course it is silly, of course there is no grand artistry or worthiness there and this is something that only really thrives within the Eurovision world so it won't get the top marks but still, there's not a lot to actively mark this down on. Vocals are there, the staging is flawless and ready to go as always with Sweden and they are not robots immune to the charms of this. I am still Mr.#JuriesExist, but trust me when I say they will like this. Perhaps not universally love. But like. I had similar feelings with Croatia last year and that went on to score very strongly in the jury. I don’t think this will pass the 200 pt threshold on that side but will not be left needing a miracle like an Estonia would.
And of course this is Sweden, that tag may still lend a credibility to this and there is a pool of regional support on hand. This will maintain it’s tag as one of the favourites too which is always a help in framing an entry as ‘serious’.
Current prediction. This is the winner and likeliest to pass the 500pt mark- jury score circa 180, 350~ televote. Only a big jury landslide (Austria???), something amazing popping up in the last countries to reveal, or a disaster narrative befalling some other competitor in Europe (Israel, Ukraine, unnacointable 0.1% shots like Santorini blowing up in Greece etc, etc) could threaten that in my view.
At worst, if I am deep in the bubble and getting carried aways this looks a 150/250 top 3 entry but there does look a certain inevitability of a really huge televote score score, particularly the way that is snowballing and being concentrated around the favourites in recent years. I don’t see any reason this is not going to be a mega hit with casuals Europe wide.
We might well be going back to Sweden very quickly.
Personal Rating: 20/20
Staging Potential: 20/20
Televote Potential: 20/20
Jury Potential: 16/20
Track Record: 19/20
Total Rating: 95/100
Early Prediction: Semi One 1st-2nd, 1st-3rd in the Final.