Eurovision 2022: Semi Final 2 (pre rehearsals) Preview
Perhaps it’s misplaced confidence, but I feel semi 2 is the even more predictable for finding our qualifiers with a strong top 9 and a good 4-6 that range from surely gone to very likely out. To add to this, despite the odds on favourite for the whole thing sitting in the other semi, this may be the one with the more straightforward winner. Anyway, read on for my full ranking with rehearsals now just days away…
18. Ireland
Unfortunately for Ireland, the metrics are appealing and what was looking an OK semi final when this was selected seems to have got away from them. I still rate the song more than some, but it's impossible to ignore what I'm seeing with this and an amateurish performance is also expected given the existing lives and rte's track record.
17. North Macedonia
I do have a bit of a soft spot for 'Circles' personally, there's something quite nice about the chorus and I appreciate the effort which sounds way more patronising than intended. Objectively, it's incredibly uninteresting and there's nothing standout about it. North Macedonia is a bit more of a giver than a receiver in the Balkans and lack best friends Albania. Placed near the middle of the draw and operating on a shoestring, it's hard to see what staging can bring or anyone remembering this when voting starts.
16. Montenegro
An actual tip from me here- opposing Montenegro is the best bet in either semi. Yes Serbia is here and the aforementioned North Macedonia but this should be sat with the latter at the 5.0- 8.0 range to qualify. It's a dour ballad on a level with Slovenia's 'Hallelujah' last year in falling completely flat and failing to get any emotion across. Vladana's styling is also a concern and nothing clicks with this. There’s more professionalism about it than 'That's Rich' or 'Circles' which is why it slots here but neither juries or televoters will have this through.
15. Georgia
I can't believe I'm tipping this to escape the bottom 3 as it still feels hopeless to qualify. It's certainly something that says more about the others than the quality of this. The song is extremely unappealing from both a jury and TV perspective in my view with the main redeeming feature being staging potential and its a first rehearsal I'll be interested to see. That said I do keep waiting for them to actually do anything with their concept and have been disappointed at every turn. Should they present this without any engaging gimmick it will get placed on song merit well off the pace. A massive bells and whistles production could see this rise into contention, but that does still look unlikely. Another i’m happy to oppose.
14. San Marino
Our first potential qualifier in my view is still one I'd give the tag of "unlikely" to. I'm far from an Achille Lauro fan, but have got some enjoyment out of this and treating him as a bit of a joke rather than a serious edgy rocker. A bit like with Bulgaria's delegation, I don't care what his 'intention' is, I have some fun with this, especially the lyrics of 'Stripper'. The use of English is however incredibly naff and coming a year after Maneskin is also taking away further credibilty. The vocals are also poor and it’s been coming across as dated rather than retro combining for horrific jury indicators across the preview shows and eurojury. There's room for this to work better live on the big stage compared to what we've already seen from them. Achille is also a guy who knows how to get attention too. I'd make it a 70+% gone particularly with no Italian voting in this semi.
13. Israel
Fun fact, this was one of the countries attracting the most interest to qualify in the early betting (which has been all over the place) matched as low as 1.2 to get through. The draw of 2nd and that attendance scare spooked backers but I wouldn't have this near the shortlist, or even borderline regardless. Too much of a pastiche to interest even the fandom, too easily blanked by individual juries and with enough camp elsewhere its another one I struggle to see make it through. The Israeli camp does look a bit disjointed so there are some concerns over how well 'I.M.' comes together on stage. Again, 70%+ they’re gone.
12. Malta
The odds make this a coin toss pretty much but I'd be taking the NQ side of that despite the casualties racking up on this preview. Yeah, Malta do well or better than expected with juries but this is the most forgettable entry in that first half in the likely event Azerbaijan out stage them. I picture a low televote and an insufficient push to get them in.
11. Romania
Romania have been coming up short to qualify and are on a horrible stretch of form. I can see a bit more misery for them this year. It would be thee weakest package in the final if it was to make it and despite their recent struggles and Eurovision generally being past peak diaspora power, Romania can’t be discounted. I’m expecting the juries to bury this given the metrics we have and the televote probably can’t make up the difference in a parallel to Malta.
10. Azerbaijan
In contrast to Romania just falling short often, Azerbaijan have a real talent for just doing enough. I prefer to weigh up each year on its own merits but you can't ignore their record of getting through even when looking questionable at this sort of stage with their one miss a narrow one in a tough semi. The draw is poor and I question how much is here for televoters but you just get the feeling they'll find the minimum 90 or so points necessary to be in the mix.
9. Belgium
After Azerbaijan, I’m pretty happy with the remaining 9 on my shortlist with the quality taking a bit of a leap. Jeremie’s song is too non descript and incoherent to do much on the televote but juries should appreciate the effort and the vocals pushing this over the line.
8. Czech Republic
I'm more concerned than I was a few weeks back for the Czech's with this the sort of nice radio friendly entry that should be picking up low consistent points in Eurojury (e.g Armenia or Belgium even). Instead this is underperforming and has also underwhelmed live. I still expect this to make it as it wins any h2h with the other borderliners when thinking it through. Having this out and a Malta or Romania in just feels wrong, especially given it works well as a show closer and I don't believe it's overshadowed by Sweden.
7. Estonia
1.2-1.3 seems awfully short for this but again I ask myself if not Stefan then what else? Estonia also stand out really well in that amateur and dated Ireland, North Mac, Romania section and he should score well across both metrics. Solid.
6. Cyprus
I am a fan of this one and there’s some potential for expectations to be exceeded. There’s a fair niche for this and despite Greece and their 24 pts missing this should do well in the Balkans in this semi. Sweden might throw in a couple for some of the songwriters, Israel have shown support to Cyprus, Greek diaspora dotted around… This should score consistent points and be through without much issue- baring a disaster live.
5. Serbia
Serbia is often the top dog out of the former Yugoslavs and they’ve really been tapping into that regional scoring power in the last few years. Konstrakta will be looking to clean up across Montenegro and North Macedonia before branching out from there. Distinctive enough to do well outside of diaspora bases too, the main issue will come getting the very top jury points to compete for a top 3 but this should be comfortable.
4. Poland
Eurojury has been a disappointment for Poland and is the main reason they drop out of the top 3 here. There have always been better jury options here but having half the points of Australia approximately whilst lagging behind a few entries that could beat them in the televote too means they take the hit. The public vote should be strong with a fair draw on that side with a few diaspora countries. Still on for a good finish in the final where it will hold it’s points in the increased field much better.
3. Australia
The true price of an entry is usually between the extremes. Similar to Finland, the pre selection single figures where mad given what Sheldon's branding is but then is that branding so bad to make a winning quality song 100-1+? Yeah I have and still do have doubts over the mask and outfit being the optimal way to go, and Australia's televote record but if people do go with it and buy into it you have a powerful song and a bit of a moment. Juries should respect this a lot and for now I'm pinning an 'average' televote to it, though that may change.
2. Finland
The Rasmus tag and Finland branding are probably helping this overperform a little but there's no reason for that to change when we get to Eurovision proper and perhaps the 250 now is as out there as the 25s before selection, especially with a fairly big show promised there's room for this to swing back down, much in the way Blind Channel did last year. A fair jury score should be exceeded by a very strong televote and I don’t think is harmed by opening.
1. Sweden
Cornelia brings a strong package regardless but this also benefits from having a great running order position. I probably have it 1st on both sides here with Sweden having greater consistency than any other rivals for the semi. It surprised me how high this scored when I did the maths and is based more on the circumstances of the semi than me having significantly re-valuated ‘Hold Me Closer’s’ overall chances.
Combined Placing (Jury Ranking/ TV Ranking) Points Estimate (Jury/T.V)
Sweden (1st/1st) 380 (190/190)
Finland (3rd/2nd) 300 (120/180)
Australia (2nd/5th) 270 (165/105)
Poland (7th/3rd) 240 (85/155)
Serbia (9th/4th) 200 (80/120)
Cyprus (5th/6th) 190 (90/100)
Estonia (6th/7th) 155 (85/70)
Czech Republic (8th/9th) 140 (80/60)
Belgium (4th/10th) 125 (90/35)
Azerbaijan (11th/12th) 85 (55/30)
Romania (16th/8th) 80 (15/65)
Malta (10th/13th) 80 (60/20)
Israel (12th/14th) 50 (30/20)
San Marino (17th/11th) 45 (15/30)
Georgia (14th/15th) 35 (20/15)
Montenegro (13th/16th) 35 (20/15)
North Macedonia (15th/17th) 30 (15/15)
Ireland (18th/18th) 25 (15/10)
So, am I being overly bullish around that top 9? In general I’d have them priced all a bit shorter and the rest longer but not long to wait now anyway. I’ll be back with my final pre rehearsal preview of the whole thing in a couple of days before the madness ramps up!