Eurovision 2022: Semi Final 1 (pre-rehearsals)Preview
In terms of getting our 10 Qualifiers, this semi looks relatively straightforward. I have 8 on the in pile which most will agree with, and a current fight between 3 for the last two spots. The top of the semi features outright favs Ukraine strongly odds-on chased only by dark horses, a symptom of a year heavily rating the big 5. Anyhow, here's my ranking at this stage…
17. Slovenia
There are 3 entries that look completely gone at this stage and for me this is the most hopeless of the lot. There’s a bit of charm here I guess in how amateur it comes across but jury points should be low coupled with a non existent televote. Staging expectations are also low so I don’t see this suddenly surprising and jumping out of the bottom 3.
16. Denmark
Like Slovenia, the band is quite likeable but again simply outclassed. They’re also unlikely to do well on either side of the equation- this isn’t a jury song or one to stand out and generate televotes.
15. Bulgaria
Won’t really have a chance to talk much about this given it ain’t qualifying but the Twitter antics have been amusing here. I don’t care if it’s ironic or not, it has helped this song grow in my own personal view, implanting a little artificial character to what was a typical forgettable entry. Anyway, despite giving the dad band vibe, we should get a professional enough performance and rock has a tendency to overperform in my view whilst parts of eastern europe will be more keen. This isn’t a case for it to qualify, but there are worse packages so this should dodge last in the semi.
14. Austria
Even before the live performance this looked suspiciously strong in the odds. I appreciate it's catchy and gives energy at a good time in the running order but it's a compositionally uninteresting example of a hard to stage genre. Juries are not going to be thrilled with this even if vocals are improved or covered up and if they aren't it's toast. Not to be wrote off just yet, but the first rehearsals will tell us if this has any chance. For now, I’m assuming the worst.
13. Croatia
Croatia has been buried in this draw and serves little purpose in the semi with Portugal, Iceland, Greece, The Netherlands and particularly Armenia better. I don't entirely rule it out but it's not quite a borderliner either and I don't even see any strong base support in the semi.
12. Iceland
Icelandic language country style song by three women sounds like it might be interesting but it just isn't really sadly. Competent but very dull and the dynamics feel awkward for any real staging surprise. Televote will be poor and even the jury signs don't point to a big enough push, if any at all.
11. Lithuania
I loathe this one but looking at it fairly, there's a chance for Lithuania to sneak into the final. Monika does a professional job which should see this get a middling jury score putting it in range. I'm not sure who outside of the diaspora (which has been stronger for Lithuania in previous semis) or Latvia potentially vote for it so it's a borderline out for now, threatening more if others slip up.
10. Switzerland
Fan dislike is high for poor Mr.Bear and I feel wider audiences will share that disinterest. The live performance can only improve things so hope isn't lost. Being the only solo male in the semi is an interesting quirk too that can only benefit him. Juries may just be able to get it through and we could have a weird split, maybe a 4/16 or something of the like.
9. Latvia
The number 2 slot has been used in both semis as a message to jurors this year more than anything. Maybe there's an attempt at reputation management in there too with a 'novelty' entry and ultra camp song given the dishonour. I know this has been written off in some areas and maybe I have a thing for weak Baltic entries in the death spot (see Estonia last year...) but I can see this qualifying. The guys give a solid performance and there a shades of Iceland 2014 here. The main issue is Norway and Moldova both coming later who do the 'fun' thing better eating into their televote potential. Still, this is in range for one of the last spots on condition the juries don't have it in their absolute bottom places.
8. Armenia
The draw is favourable coupled with the burying of Croatia but I really hope there's something to back up going last in terms of staging otherwise Rosa could look a little lost. Potential to be safer than this.
7. Moldova
Yeah, this just has to be on any list of Qualifiers really even if not high up. Moldova are very good at doing enough and I can't see any rehearsal wobbles with this and I guess we'll have to wait and see how high concept their train theme will be. Jury score probably too much of an issue to tip for much more but it should be in the final. May overperform televote expectations.
6. Portugal
Following this years theme, I'm keeping Portugal around the middle of the Qualifiers for now. I'm not a fan of the draw with this feeling really sandwiched in the middle. Looking more likely to be lost rather than to create a moment right now but there should still be enough quality to get through although early metrics are disappointing. Not worth backing to Q.
5. Albania
There's not much to say on Albania. It's a strong opener and there's nothing like it in the semi. Heavy diaspora support should come from the likes of Greece, Italy and Switzerland to cement a comfortable qualification. I don't think there's room for too much extra unless staging is truly exceptional.
4. Greece
Out of the top songs in the semi 'Die Together' is the one we have less to go off. I think this has been quite carefully constructed as jury bait, an approach that should Marius Bear some fruit here. The televote looks shaky until we see what Fokas has brought for the staging whilst it's not doing great on some of the metrics coming through (hence the drift in the outright). It's the first entry to put the house on qualifying but there feels a bit of a ceiling.
3. Norway
I'm happy with having Norway in third and it makes the most sense slotting here. The public sympathy votes Ukraine into first before going for the catchy fun whilst juries respect it, but prefer the ballads. It likely won't be that straightforward and there feels some upwards or downwards televote range but realistically, this feels right.
2. Netherlands
It's a good draw for the Netherlands, a really good draw. The whole first half of the semi builds towards S10 and arguably eases back down from it- particularly from a jury perspective. It looks as though this will be top 5 on most metrics going into rehearsals and whilst it does feel more of a 'fan thing' than a general public song I can still see appeal in this. I've gone a bit back and forth with this (thankfully at the right times) but it's one worth keeping on side at current odds.
1. Ukraine
Ukraine are expected to skew heavily to the televote but that's less of a problem here than in the final simply because the juries can't rein in any public show of support here, and have less of a reason to anyway with a lot less they would have to overlook. Of course, many more people (me included) have the assumption that 'everyone is going to vote for them' compared to saying 'I'm going to vote for them'. Joe public is actually less keen on the song than the lukewarm fandom whilst being much more sure it will win "despite being rubbish" which is a view I've seen a lot. It's an uncomfortable 1st for now through a lack of alternatives with the main outright rivals elsewhere but if that assumption is off, its beatable here too, but something would need to seriously up it's game.
Combined Placing (Jury Ranking/ TV Ranking) Points Estimate (Jury/T.V)
Ukraine (4th/1st) 300 (120/180)
Netherlands (1st/3rd) 275 (160/115)
Norway (3rd/2nd) 270 (125/145)
Greece (2nd/6th) 240 (140/100)
Albania(7th/5th) 180 (80/100)
Portugal (5th/7th) 160 (100/60)
Moldova (9th/4th) 150 (50/100)
Armenia (8th/10th) 120 (60/60)
Latvia (12th/8th) 110 (40/70)
Switzerland (6th/13th) 100 (80/20)
Lithuania (10th/9th) 95 (45/50)
Iceland (11th/16th) 55 (40/15)
Croatia (12th/14th) 50 (35/15)
Austria (14th/12th) 45 (25/20)
Bulgaria (16th/13th) 30 (10/20)
Denmark (15th/15th) 25 (15/10)
Slovenia (17th/17th) 15 (10/5)
Current odds for Ukraine don't really appeal. They should win here but at that kind of price i’d rather back a Moldova to qualify for example, getting the winnings in time to reinvest rather than tying up.
I've been going with a “safer” approach in general the last few years in the semis and given the dynamics will probably continue in that way with very little invested here so far.