Eurovision 2025: First Preview
So, everything is here and we’ve had a good week for the songs to settle into place. My thoughts on the year have remained pretty similar throughout - I think the average standard is pretty good but without a really elite top 3/5. There are some I really like for sure, and some worthy winners. But I don’t think anything that can unite the jury and televote for the first time since 2017. It’s amazing that wait looks set to continue and I don't think there is a 600+ “win in any year” entry either.
Let’s tackle the early challengers in order of current odds:
Sweden I have spoke a lot on and all my thoughts still stand, this feels like a very likely public vote winner, and one that will also pick up respect from the juries. I don't see why this won't be 300+ on the televote (those extremes are increasingly less so) whilst it will broadly be in the 150-200pt range with jurors. Reminder on there was nothing in it between them and Måns Zelmerlow at melfest on that side - an act many had in the 250~ jury range so this isn't unreasonable- especially as it will surely enter as one of the favourites and carries the Sweden tag for a bit of a credibility boost.
France is the opposite in a way. I don't see the jury corronating them in the Loreen/Nemo manner but something circa 275-300 is very achievable and this will be given every opportunity in the draw - probably going 24th if given the chance. If it can gather a Slimane or Barbara Pravi level televote there's every chance that could be enough. We will see if Louanne's more intimate promised performance can cut through.
Austria is in that wildcard category where I respect the potential (highest ceiling if it lands) but also a real danger in backing this in the 3s and it not even making top 5 eventually. Current price has to be assuming this wins Eurojury and enters as the definitive favourite. JJ has promised a 'never before seen staging' revolving around that boat of his and this is something we will just have to wait and see on. It is good they are at least thinking big with this and literally pushing the boat out. I won't commit to a score on this without seeing all those pieces fall into place, but there is theoretically the highest ceiling here if everything works. Personally, I stopped backing this around 7s.
Whilst I have doubts over Austria, I do at least see the mathematics working for them which I struggle with for the rest right now. Israel just does not stand out here as a song in my view and the automatic 300+ televote is very doubtful regardless. One we will need to wait and see if the push is there or Yuval's narrative takes hold. Recent activities are not helping their cause with the EBU/juries regarding allowing a win either. My 200~ TV prediction for this actually could turn out optimistic but we’ll see. Difficult to be too definitive but I think winning chances are overplayed.
Netherlands feels like a 150-250 jury song at the most and I'd still expect this to maybe miss the televote top 10. My backhanded olive branch to fans of this is that Måns' at the time unexpected exit from Melfest has opened a door for Claude to be the unchallenging, western, middle of the road charmer. Feels 4th-10th, needs a strong Eurojury (probable) to reach that top end and a good draw.
I think the days of the fandom being completely out of line (with the favourites) are behind us to be honest so I'm not as quick to dismiss Finland as a total Saara Aalto type fanwank flop and it is a well put together performance, but not a contender. I do see this as a top 10 entry, maybe with a pretty even 100 televote, 80 jury type score if I have to commit.
Estonia could fittingly prove more random (on the public vote, it looks a solid 75~ with jurors) and is probably a decent E/W option following the mega drift on them. Looking way way ahead, I expect semi one to be between Tommy and Sweden with the post semi stats massively leaning to that pair. I am looking at somewhere between 200-300 on the televote.
Albania are next in the odds and Zjerm still hits hard, I'm torn between this and Bara Badu Basta as my personal favourite of the year actually. Kole's performance at FiK is the main reason this has been dismissed, piled on top of suspicions the juries won't reward this as much as they should anyway. I think there is too much love for this, too much of an engaged diaspora and too much of a niche for this not to be top 10, but pushing up from the lower positions of that will become progressively harder. Recent hype and optimism is a bit much. Maybe a 150TV 60J type entry.
Ukraine are maybe harder to place than first thought and a jury vote of 75-125 might be do-able. I do think this song is pants but there is a bit of a hipster musicianship vibe and likely some overly friendly scoring too. Televote probably around 140 but could deviate both higher or lower too. I don't foresee much diaspora motivation around this currently, especially if it remains low in the odds.
Belgium has aged like milk and I'm on the verge of joining the NQ crew, waiting for the semi draw on that. Could do OK if it does qualify. Don't recommend anything here for now.
We now join 100+ territory and I'm still not sure what to make on Italy although I don't think it's going to work to any notable extent with the public, relying purely on how much jurors are in the mood for this. I actually think this is quite a volatile one with juries too - potentially in that top 3, potentially completely overlooked by them too. France as a dominant big 5 threat and the subtle Switzerland drawn in 19th also make me concerned for the draw and push here with Lucio potentially being dumped in midtable. I won't argue against the E/W if it continues to drift given potential but it's not something I'm personally interested in backing and I can see this missing the top 10 currently. Wider range than first thought.
Malta is maybe the most credible dark horse, continuing to be priced 4-5 times higher than Finland when I make the gap much smaller. No longer serving as hard or explicitly and yet to truly kick on as a meme. I could see juries coming on board more than is expected but also plenty of room to miss the top 10.
After them we are in real longshot territory where you're pretty much relying on something random happening. Switzerland has the only really high ceiling from these in my view if jurors turn to this as the calm song of the night. Greece are a long way from the 18s! pre national final in January and 400 is probably a bit harsh (more like 100 imo), but yeah, a lot needs to improve here and more likely ends 15th even if they play everything right.
Germany has shown glimpses of a good public score but whether that comes or not is hard to say. It’s not something I’d like to commit to at this stage. A word too on Norway who should theoretically be very easy to predict as a qualifier and then do nothing type thing. I do still expect that to happen but Kyle continues to overacheive with a convincing NF favouritism and win, receiving the most positive reviews from Melfest participants (not really a stretch given how Lighter would slip right in there) but also somehow still lingering well inside the Escscoreboard top 10. 7s on top 10 were available yesterday, since taken following another good performance. Stats backers should be keen on this.
Anyway, overall I do think the odds have found the correct three likeliest winners. The market gives them around a 67% combined chance and this might even be a little higher in my view, though I would allocate the three a little differently, with France and Austria sharing a spot in the 5s.
After them, I think it's pretty level and flat. Sweden and France are top 4 certainties I think and there are lots of cases for the last (or last 2, if Austria underwhelm) spots in there.
Looking at the top 10, there is a case for a hell of a lot of other countries I’ve yet to mention led by Poland and Lithuania with a diaspora boost to sneak in there, but overall I am going for a more predictable set for now.
Current Guestimate
Sweden 530
France 500
Austria 480
Estonia 330
Netherlands 290
Israel 270
Ukraine 250
Albania 225
Finland 180
Malta 150
For Fun:
Sweden or France to win
Estonia E/W
Albania Top 10
Malta as a longshot