Austria 2025: JJ with ‘Wasted Love’
One of the market's more anticipated internal releases was presented yesterday with Austria's wasted love.
At the time of writing, wasted love feels like it has the highest ceiling of any entry out there (maybe with one exception) and certainly from the selected songs. This hits hard, instantly and would really stand out in the final and on a recap. JJ seems reliable and likeable enough to pull this off and is a strong front for this. This is pretty much second in the odds currently behind only Sweden, and that is reasonable.
Now onto the two big 'objective' criticisms and how valid they are:
Opera = Flopera - there is definitely a tendency to overate this kind of thing in the betting markets. There seems to be an implication that it's of high class, greater worthiness or that alone is the selling point. That audiences will be stunned and jurors have no option but to a rank an entry high due to vocals. That doesn't really come through and opera or popera is playing by the same fundamentals as other entries. Results from the opera entries we have had are all over the place showing it's not the main factor but have been mostly strong. I don't really consider Nemo very operatic really but that is of course the example being pointed to the most leading us to...
It's a Nemo copy - Undoubtedly. This is far more operatic and combines different elements to what Nemo had but the similarity in vibes alone is undeniable and those comparisons will be made. Worth saying Nemo was only 5th in the televote and I'm not sure "copying" him carries the most baggage in the world compared to others in the public perceptions. One way or another, each winner has been different to the previous over the past 20 years at the contest and this would be the most similar. Relatedly, there are a few others going for that same Nemo energy in their own ways (Belgium, Czechia). This blows those away in competitiveness but they do contribute to a sense of fatigue. "Oh here's another one doing the same".
They are both valid arguments that I agree with, I'm just not of the belief they are the be all and end all. They are potential warning signs but don’t flash brightly enough to discard Austria without further thought.
There are certainly flaws in the composition and whilst I like a strong build the second verse seems unnecessarily short and yeah, the dance beat ending requires a hell of a lot of staging to make work and mask the cheapness of it. I also find the vocal uncomfortably high at times but I think also this shows how the song itself is strong - I would listen to this and maybe even prefer it where JJ performing this 'normally'.
It's not the hookiest entry but gains memorability in other ways - that is the main plus that the opera brings I suppose and the big tangible benefit to a televote. I think the opening is the strongest part of this overall though which draws you in and let's you go along with the rest that is to come and is essential in framing the song.
Staging is of course massive and this is another entry that has left a full 10-15 seconds to play with (seemingly by cutting that second verse in half). I assume something extra is planned because otherwise that's just stupid. There has also been a lot of imagery from Austria regarding floating and they might be trying to replicate that live too. It's something other countries are playing at, from Klemen being flipped upside down to JOSH's pole levitating in FdC. Austria will probably be hoping for an NQ for Slovenia just to maintain their novelty stronger and definitely a different winner in Portugal if this is the gimmick they are going with.
It is something delegations have observed in that just standing there doesn't maximise potential. Instead every jury winner in the 2020s so far has had some prop - Gjon's structure, Sam Ryder's scaffolding rocket, Loreen's sandwich press and Nemo's spinning top ice rink ball thing. That trend of high tech staging is something Austria look likely to continue which is a main reason I'm cautious here. I feel this could get to 300+ on the jury unlike anything else likely to be here could. And that isn't just because Nemo achieved that last year etc etc, but because of the established trends over a far longer period.
So, what do I see at this stage with not many to come? A jury top 3 looks very likely unless we have an absolute mess live - again because that is a box ticking exercise and this ticks many. The televote is less certain - potentially sub 150 points, maybe as high as 275 with the perfect staging. This cannot just show up on stage with nothing going on, otherwise it is toast, but I think the chance of that given everything Austria have shown so far is low.
I don't see this as a shock NQ (particularly with what Czechia have now gone and done) and this could scrap for the victory there depending on Israel's support and how much fan love Malta and Finland can replicate. It's not the highest bar in semi two and this should be up there.
So yeah potential winner. I say that with the caveat I'm putting a lot of faith in Austria going big with the staging and getting that right.
Personal Rating: 14/20
Staging Potential: 20/20
Televote Potential: 18/20
Jury Potential: 19/20
Track Record: 15/20
Total Rating: 86/100
Early Prediction: Semi Two 1st-4th, 1st-5th in the Final.