Belgium 2025: Red Sebastian with 'Strobe Lights'
Belgium have been sitting pretty in the odds for much of the early season thanks to hype, with the selection of Red Sebastian at Eurosong keeping them for now in the top 4.
This is an odd one from Belgium and falls into that group of entries where I don't want to take an early position. If this won in May I wouldn't be surprised, if it came 12th I’d also get it. In that sense it’s one more comparison to last year's winner Nemo whose first review here was similarly inconclusive.
Strobe Lights isn’t as interesting a composition as The Code but is a well constructed song that builds up and is engaging for it’s 3 minutes. There is an aspect to this that is more Loreen-esque but either way those are strong comparisons for me to hurl around.
The weaker spot here is Sebastian himself who I don't find very engaging, or at least not on that “eurovision winner level”. This song necessitates bold staging similar to what we got at the National Final but Belgium need to delicately balance that with not smothering Sebastian and he needs to find the camera with more conviction - which I’m sure will come with time and through rehearsals. Belgium have previous of underwhelming and poor staging at the contest itself however which is worth remembering, even if some of the more obvious examples such as last year where at the hands of the other broadcaster.
This is the first time in fact in at the least the last 20 years where VRT feel they have a contender, with the early odds enthusiasm and emphatic national final result and it will be interesting to see how they handle it.
A further red flag to this which is easier to put into words than my own vague feelings of just not being convinced. A notable one is that this should be a fandom song but has not been received in such a positive way. This feels like it should be comprehensively above Greece and Albania on eurovision scoreboard yet it is not. It’s almost certainly losing more pace this Saturday should Finland select Erika Vikman as expected and I’ve seen more views declaring songs in Portugal or Czechia's acoustic performance as potential winners.
The fandom is not a 1:1 guide ever - something that I’ll again probably be repeating r.e. Finland very soon - but the point is this feels like more of a bubble song that doesn't hit the main audience as hard. If it is already “struggling” here there is a lot to be done - perhaps too much.
I’m more optimistic on the jury side of the vote where there is a strong precedence for this with the as mentioned Nemo and Loreen similarities. Belgium would also be a well received host country at EBU headquarters too so this will probably be given a good amount of support with the draw. We're still in the super wide range early stages of the year but I could see this receiving 200+ jury points which makes it a contender on that side. This won’t however receive a coronation as in past years with certainly too many entries set to compete on that side.
Overall, odds on this to win are pretty fair, maybe even holding a little value at current 15s~ since I hold doubts over Israel and Ukraine floating close by. The market gives it a circa 7% chance at winning currently, meaning 93% chance it does not. That is roughly where I am at too. In these early days I’ll suggest a 140TV, 180J score which probably puts Belgium somewhere in 5th-8th.
Personal Rating: 15/20
Staging Potential: 18/20
Televote Potential: 16/20
Jury Potential: 18/20
Track Record: 15/20
Total: 82/100
Early Prediction: Semi 1 3rd-5th, Final 5th-8th