Estonia 2025: Tommy Cash with ‘Espresso Macchiato’

The self proclaimed Eurovision 2025 winner is here with Tommy Cash's Espresso Macchiato.

This has proven quite a divisive one and I’ve seen opinions given in sincerity from 400+ televotes to NQ. Not to spoil the conclusion but neither of those are happening. I’ve also seen plenty of Italians are not thrilled with this but come on guys, no stresso, and it’s started picking up some streams there even.

It is however an odd choice to send a song to Eurovision that is so coded to a different countries culture, or a caricature of it. Why is Estonia sending this Italian themed entry? is a question many will be asking. It is very random but that is Tommy's whole thing.

With credit, this is the strongest hook of the year with the chorus being insanely memorable. It’s interesting too in the way of this not being an all out party song which most silly songs typically are. I find the closest comparisons naturally being Uno (Russia '20) and going far back Baila El Chiki Chiki (Spain ‘07). In terms of general reaction this is currently right in the middle of those.

The fandom is not a great barometer on a joke entry but it should be said Uno was well received which Tommy is very much in the mold of and his mate Kaarijaa was an instant hit. His other pal Joost was released to scorn but grew on people. Espresso Macchiato has been sat there going cold and receiving a reaction closer to Windows95man.

That's not to dismiss this being a hit with the public, and this has finally started picking up some traction following Eesti Laul and even if dominance was expected there, it has to be said that is one impressive result for Tommy. This is the most overt meme entry of the year, jumping Malta and Finland and the viral threat is something to look out for. I was going to be critical for the relative lack of interest in this as its not as though Tommy is an unkown but perhaps they’re timing this and we are seeing the push start. This is hard to pin down on the televote this early but loosely 150pts seems the floor and 350 pts the max.

This is something we will see with the full field but Ukraine are not expected to be a factor, whilst the Israel narrative a year later may not be as effective. Maybe those factors allow a potential televote winner to stretch out the lead a bit more.

On the jury side and with all the goodwill, name recognition and favouritism leniance (if this gets to that point) I don't see how this gets past 100 jury points - somewhere in the middle between what Joost was set to receive and how Kaarijaa did. There's a real lack of jury friendly entries currently but we're expecting a late flood of them so we’ll have to see where the math lies on that side in the weeks to come.

I know Tommy did strongly on the jury vote at Eesti Laul but I don’t think there’s a lot to take from that when we throw in the expected entries on their way and the concessions that are made in any NF.

The staging of this needs work and a far bigger budget. I quite like the security guards dropping some shapes and Tommy's silly moves but there is the overall impression very little effort was put into that. I’d go big personally and build a cafe set to interact with - I don’t think there’s enough here to get by on an empty stage only using the Leds.

In terms of winner chances this needs to reach the very top end of its televote and hope the juries don’t find one single entry to pile on like they have in the last few years from the remaining countries. I’ve gone back and forth on this a bit but there is a route to the minimum 450pts. It’s unlikely to be enough but the next few weeks may decide that; A wrong choice here, a dissapointing internal there, reviews being correct about a certain Swede’s level and then maybe we can begin to discuss it seriously but this feels more in the 4th-11th range, and that on its own requires plenty of pre contest traction. Favourite for the semi Win currently in my view.

Personal Rating: 17/20

Staging Potential: 19/20

Televote Potential: 19/20

Jury Potential: 8/20

Track Record: 13/20

Total Rating: 76/100

Early Prediction: Semi One 1st-3rd, 5th-9th in the final